AIOOJ — Litigation Outcome Model v9.1.4

Overall win probability

Expected recovery — nominal EV

Probability-weighted mean

Settlement resistance floor P10

Portfolio-weighted beta P10

Branch-weighted present value

SJ 30% / Neg 55% / Trial 15%

Costs-adjusted total exposure

EV + P9-weighted costs

DFCR-adjusted expected value

Net of defendant capacity risk

Limitation double-failure P

P(s.55 AND demand both fail)

Near-full recovery (>$55m)

Deed ultimate probability

Claim path probabilities● live

Settlement band distribution5 bands

Near-full driven by Deed ultimate (L2 OR L5). Korea floor (~$13.7m) operational in effectively all winning scenarios.

P2 × P4 stress heat map

EV $m: Deed-stream quantum + Korea floor (genuine P2/P4 gradient ~$38m to ~$93m). Win %: full OR-gate win probability. P10 stress: all six worst-case event failures applied to each cell — move E1–E6 sliders in the P10 panel to update in real time. Gold outline = current P2/P4 inputs.

Shapley driver rankingv9.1 fix

L8 (Route C) wired as OR gate in Contract limitation layer.

Stress floor — adversarial scenariosStress_Floor

Scenario A: stressed inputs, OR gates. Scenario B (AND-gate): extreme lower bound.

Rational settlement corridornegotiation

PV floor — plaintiff minimum

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Costs-adj PV — defendant ceiling

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EGM deadline

Q4 2026

$0—$100.7m

Corridor = PV of EV (plaintiff floor) to PV of costs-adjusted EV (defendant ceiling). Q4 2026 EGM deadline creates settlement urgency.